COVID-19: Modeling Out-of-Home and In-Home Activity Participation during the Pandemic

Understanding the interaction between in-home and out-of-home activity participation decisions is important, particularly at a time when opportunities for out-of-home activities such as shopping, entertainment, and so forth are limited because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The travel restrictions imposed as a result of the pandemic have had a massive impact on out-of-home activities and have changed in-home activities as well. This study investigates in-home and out-of-home activity participation during the COVID-19 pandemic. Data comes from the COVID-19 Survey for assessing Travel impact (COST), conducted from March to May in 2020. This study uses data for the Okanagan region of British Columbia, Canada to develop the following two models: a random parameter multinomial logit (RPMNL) model for out-of-home activity participation and a hazard-based random parameter duration (HRPD) model for in-home activity participation. The model results suggest that significant interactions exist between out-of-home and in-home activities. For example, a higher frequency of out-of-home work-related travel is more likely to result in a shorter duration of in-home work activities. Similarly, a longer duration of in-home leisure activities might yield a lower likelihood for recreational travel. Health care workers are more likely to engage in work-related travel and less likely to participate in personal and household maintenance activities at home. The model confirms heterogeneity among the individuals. For instance, a shorter duration of in-home online shopping yields a higher probability for participation in out-of-home shopping activity. This variable shows significant heterogeneity with a large standard deviation, which reveals that sizable variation exists for this variable.

COVID-19: Modeling Out-of-Home and In-Home Activity Participation during the Pandemic.

Understanding the interaction between in-home and out-of-home activity participation decisions is important, particularly at a time when opportunities for out-of-home activities such as shopping, entertainment, and so forth are limited because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The travel restrictions imposed as a result of the pandemic have had a massive impact on out-of-home activities and have changed in-home activities as well. This study investigates in-home and out-of-home activity participation during the COVID-19 pandemic. Data comes from the COVID-19 Survey for assessing Travel impact (COST), conducted from March to May in 2020. This study uses data for the Okanagan region of British Columbia, Canada to develop the following two models: a random parameter multinomial logit (RPMNL) model for out-of-home activity participation and a hazard-based random parameter duration (HRPD) model for in-home activity participation. The model results suggest that significant interactions exist between out-of-home and in-home activities. For example, a higher frequency of out-of-home work-related travel is more likely to result in a shorter duration of in-home work activities. Similarly, a longer duration of in-home leisure activities might yield a lower likelihood for recreational travel. Health care workers are more likely to engage in work-related travel and less likely to participate in personal and household maintenance activities at home. The model confirms heterogeneity among the individuals. For instance, a shorter duration of in-home online shopping yields a higher probability for participation in out-of-home shopping activity. This variable shows significant heterogeneity with a large standard deviation, which reveals that sizable variation exists for this variable.

Identification of novel inhibitors of high affinity iron permease (FTR1) through implementing pharmacokinetics index to fight against black fungus: An in silico approach.

Mucormycosis is a life-threatening fungal infection, particularly in immunocompromised patients. Mucormycosis has been reported to show resistance to available antifungal drugs and was recently found in COVID-19 as a co-morbidity that demands new classes of drugs. In an attempt to find novel inhibitors against the high-affinity iron permease (FTR1), a novel target having fundamental importance on the pathogenesis of mucormycosis, 11,000 natural compounds were investigated in this study. Virtual screening and molecular docking identified two potent natural compounds [6',7,7,10',10',13'-hexamethylspiro[1,8-dihydropyrano[2,3-g]indole-3,11'-3,13-diazatetracyclo[5.5.2.01,9.03,7]tetradecane]-2,9,14'-trione and 5,7-dihydroxy-3-(2,2,8,8-tetramethylpyrano[2,3-f]chromen-6-yl)chromen-4-one] that effectively bind to the active cavity of FTR1 with a binding affinity of -9.9 kcal/mol. Multiple non-covalent interactions between the compounds and the active residues of this cavity were noticed, which is required for FTR1 inhibition. These compounds were found to have inhibitory nature and meet essential requirements to be drug-like compounds with a considerable absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion (ADME) profile with no toxicity probabilities. Molecular dynamics simulation confirms the structural compactness and less conformational variation of the drug-protein complexes maintaining structural stability and rigidity. MM-PBSA and post-simulation analysis predict binding stability of these compounds in the active cavity. This study hypothesizing that these compounds could be a potential inhibitor of FTR1 and will broaden the clinical prospects of mucormycosis.

How Will In-Person and Online Grocery Shopping and Meal Consumption Activities Evolve After COVID-19?

COVID-19 has drastically altered the daily lives of many people, forcing them to spend more time at home. This shift significantly increased online grocery shopping and ordering for food while restrictions and social distancing measures were in place. As re-opening begins, little is known about the way virtual and in-person shopping/eating activities will evolve after the pandemic. This study adopts a multivariate ordered probit model to investigate individuals' preferences toward the following activities after the pandemic: online grocery shopping, in-store grocery shopping, online ordering of food, and eating-out at restaurants. The model retained statistically significant error correlations among the activities, confirming the need for joint modeling. Model results suggested that individuals with lower income and with children are likely to perform grocery shopping and eating-out activities in person. Individuals owning a vehicle and a driver's license have a higher likelihood of less frequent online shopping and more frequent in-store grocery shopping. Individuals with transit passes prefer to order groceries online and engage in eat-out activities frequently. Individuals residing in mixed land use areas prefer frequent in-store grocery shopping whereas suburban dwellers prefer it less frequently. The model confirms complementarity and substitution effects. For instance, online food ordering revealed a complementary effect on eating-out activities whereas online grocery shopping confirmed a substitution effect on in-store grocery shopping. These findings provide important behavioral insights into travel activity patterns in the post-pandemic era, which will help in understanding the inter-relationships between online and in-person shopping/eating activities, and accommodating such inter-dependencies within the travel demand forecasting models for effective policy-making.

Development of a Smartphone-Based Expert System for COVID-19 Risk Prediction at Early Stage.

COVID-19 has imposed many challenges and barriers on traditional healthcare systems due to the high risk of being infected by the coronavirus. Modern electronic devices like smartphones with information technology can play an essential role in handling the current pandemic by contributing to different telemedical services. This study has focused on determining the presence of this virus by employing smartphone technology, as it is available to a large number of people. A publicly available COVID-19 dataset consisting of 33 features has been utilized to develop the aimed model, which can be collected from an in-house facility. The chosen dataset has 2.82% positive and 97.18% negative samples, demonstrating a high imbalance of class populations. The Adaptive Synthetic (ADASYN) has been applied to overcome the class imbalance problem with imbalanced data. Ten optimal features are chosen from the given 33 features, employing two different feature selection algorithms, such as K Best and recursive feature elimination methods. Mainly, three classification schemes, Random Forest (RF), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), and Support Vector Machine (SVM), have been applied for the ablation studies, where the accuracy from the XGB, RF, and SVM classifiers achieved 97.91%, 97.81%, and 73.37%, respectively. As the XGB algorithm confers the best results, it has been implemented in designing the Android operating system base and web applications. By analyzing 10 users' questionnaires, the developed expert system can predict the presence of COVID-19 in the human body of the primary suspect. The preprocessed data and codes are available on the GitHub repository.

An Improved Machine-Learning Approach for COVID-19 Prediction Using Harris Hawks Optimization and Feature Analysis Using SHAP.

A healthcare monitoring system needs the support of recent technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), and big data, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. This global pandemic has already taken millions of lives. Both infected and uninfected people have generated big data where AI and ML can use to combat and detect COVID-19 at an early stage. Motivated by this, an improved ML framework for the early detection of this disease is proposed in this paper. The state-of-the-art Harris hawks optimization (HHO) algorithm with an improved objective function is proposed and applied to optimize the hyperparameters of the ML algorithms, namely HHO-based eXtreme gradient boosting (HHOXGB), light gradient boosting (HHOLGB), categorical boosting (HHOCAT), random forest (HHORF) and support vector classifier (HHOSVC). An ensemble technique was applied to these optimized ML models to improve the prediction performance. Our proposed method was applied to publicly available big COVID-19 data and yielded a prediction accuracy of 92.38% using the ensemble model. In contrast, HHOXGB provided the highest accuracy of 92.23% as a single optimized model. The performance of the proposed method was compared with the traditional algorithms and other ML-based methods. In both cases, our proposed method performed better. Furthermore, not only the classification improvement, but also the features are analyzed in terms of feature importance calculated by SHapely adaptive exPlanations (SHAP) values. A graphical user interface is also discussed as a potential tool for nonspecialist users such as clinical staff and nurses. The processed data, trained model, and codes related to this study are available at GitHub.

Phytochemicals-based targeting RdRp and main protease of SARS-CoV-2 using docking and steered molecular dynamic simulation: A promising therapeutic approach for Tackling COVID-19.

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has affected millions of people worldwide and caused substantial socio-economic losses. Few successful vaccine candidates have been approved against SARS-CoV-2; however, their therapeutic efficacy against the mutated strains of the virus remains questionable. Furthermore, the limited supply of vaccines and promising antiviral drugs have created havoc in the present scenario. Plant-based phytochemicals (bioactive molecules) are promising because of their low side effects and high therapeutic value. In this study, we aimed to screen for suitable phytochemicals with higher therapeutic value using the two most crucial proteins of SARS-CoV-2, the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) and main protease (Mpro). We used computational tools such as molecular docking and steered molecular dynamics simulations to gain insights into the different types of interactions and estimated the relative binding forces between the phytochemicals and their respective targets. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report that not only involves a search for a therapeutic bioactive molecule but also sheds light on the mechanisms underlying target inhibition in terms of calculations of force and work needed to extractthe ligand from the pocket of its target. The complexes showing higher binding forces were subjected to 200 ns molecular dynamic simulations to check the stability of the ligand inside the binding pocket. Our results suggested that isoskimmiwallin and terflavin A are potential inhibitors of RdRp, whereas isoquercitrin and isoorientin are the lead molecules against Mpro. Collectively, our findings could potentially aid in the development of novel therapeutics against COVID-19.

Genome-wide identification and prediction of SARS-CoV-2 mutations show an abundance of variants: Integrated study of bioinformatics and deep neural learning.

Genomic data analysis is a fundamental system for monitoring pathogen evolution and the outbreak of infectious diseases. Based on bioinformatics and deep learning, this study was designed to identify the genomic variability of SARS-CoV-2 worldwide and predict the impending mutation rate. Analysis of 259044 SARS-CoV-2 isolates identified 3334545 mutations with an average of 14.01 mutations per isolate. Globally, single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) is the most prevalent mutational event. The prevalence of C > T (52.67%) was noticed as a major alteration across the world followed by the G > T (14.59%) and A > G (11.13%). Strains from India showed the highest number of mutations (48) followed by Scotland, USA, Netherlands, Norway, and France having up to 36 mutations. D416G, F106F, P314L, UTR:C241T, L93L, A222V, A199A, V30L, and A220V mutations were found as the most frequent mutations. D1118H, S194L, R262H, M809L, P314L, A8D, S220G, A890D, G1433C, T1456I, R233C, F263S, L111K, A54T, A74V, L183A, A316T, V212F, L46C, V48G, Q57H, W131R, G172V, Q185H, and Y206S missense mutations were found to largely decrease the structural stability of the corresponding proteins. Conversely, D3L, L5F, and S97I were found to largely increase the structural stability of the corresponding proteins. Multi-nucleotide mutations GGG > AAC, CC > TT, TG > CA, and AT > TA have come up in our analysis which are in the top 20 mutational cohort. Future mutation rate analysis predicts a 17%, 7%, and 3% increment of C > T, A > G, and A > T, respectively in the future. Conversely, 7%, 7%, and 6% decrement is estimated for T > C, G > A, and G > T mutations, respectively. T > G\A, C > G\A, and A > T\C are not anticipated in the future. Since SARS-CoV-2 is mutating continuously, our findings will facilitate the tracking of mutations and help to map the progression of the COVID-19 intensity worldwide.

Prediction of the Effects of Variants and Differential Expression of Key Host Genes ACE2, TMPRSS2, and FURIN in SARS-CoV-2 Pathogenesis: An In Silico Approach.

A new strain of the beta coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is solely responsible for the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Although several studies suggest that the spike protein of this virus interacts with the cell surface receptor, angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), and is subsequently cleaved by TMPRSS2 and FURIN to enter into the host cell, conclusive insight about the interaction pattern of the variants of these proteins is still lacking. Thus, in this study, we analyzed the functional conjugation among the spike protein, ACE2, TMPRSS2, and FURIN in viral pathogenesis as well as the effects of the mutations of the proteins through the implementation of several bioinformatics approaches. Analysis of the intermolecular interactions revealed that T27A (ACE2), G476S (receptor-binding domain [RBD] of the spike protein), C297T (TMPRSS2), and P812S (cleavage site for TMPRSS2) coding variants may render resistance in viral infection, whereas Q493L (RBD), S477I (RBD), P681R (cleavage site for FURIN), and P683W (cleavage site for FURIN) may lead to increase viral infection. Genotype-specific expression analysis predicted several genetic variants of ACE2 (rs2158082, rs2106806, rs4830971, and rs4830972), TMPRSS2 (rs458213, rs468444, rs4290734, and rs6517666), and FURIN (rs78164913 and rs79742014) that significantly alter their normal expression which might affect the viral spread. Furthermore, we also found that ACE2, TMPRSS2, and FURIN proteins are functionally co-related with each other, and several genes are highly co-expressed with them, which might be involved in viral pathogenesis. This study will thus help in future genomics and proteomics studies of SARS-CoV-2 and will provide an opportunity to understand the underlying molecular mechanism during SARS-CoV-2 pathogenesis.

COVID – 19: Modeling Out-Of-Home and In-home Activity Participation during the Pandemic

Understanding the interaction between in-home/out-of-home activity participation decision is important, particularly at a time when opportunities for out-of-home activities such as shopping, entertainment etc. are limited because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The travel restriction imposed due to the pandemic has made a massive impact on the out-of-home activities, consequently changing the in-home activities as well. This study investigates the in-home and out-of-home activity participation during the COVID-19 pandemic. Data comes from the COVID – 19 Survey for assessing Travel impact (COST). This study utilizes data for the Kelowna region of British Columbia, Canada to develop the following two models: a random parameter multinomial logit (RPMNL) model for out-of-home activity participation and, a hazard-based random parameter duration (HRPD) model for in-home activity participation. The model results suggest that significant interactions exist between out-of-home and in-home activities. For example, higher frequency of out-of-home work travel is more likely to result in longer duration of in-home work activities. Similarly, longer duration of in-home leisure activities might yield a lower likelihood of recreational travel. Health care workers are more likely to engage in work-related travel and less likely to participate in personal and household maintenance activities at home. The model confirms heterogeneity among the individuals. For instance, longer duration of in-home online shopping yields a higher probability for participation in out-of-home shopping activity. This variable shows significant heterogeneity with a large standard deviation, which reveals that sizable variation exist for this variable.

Temporal landscape of mutational frequencies in SARS-CoV-2 genomes of Bangladesh: possible implications from the ongoing outbreak in Bangladesh.

Along with intrinsic evolution, adaptation to selective pressure in new environments might have resulted in the circulatory SARS-CoV-2 strains in response to the geoenvironmental conditions of a country and the demographic profile of its population. With this target, the current study traced the evolutionary route and mutational frequency of 198 Bangladesh-originated SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences available in the GISAID platform over a period of 13 weeks as of 14 July 2020. The analyses were performed using MEGA X, Swiss Model Repository, Virus Pathogen Resource and Jalview visualization. Our analysis identified that majority of the circulating strains strikingly differ from both the reference genome and the first sequenced genome from Bangladesh. Mutations in nonspecific proteins (NSP2-3, NSP-12(RdRp), NSP-13(Helicase)), S-Spike, ORF3a, and N-Nucleocapsid protein were common in the circulating strains with varying degrees and the most unique mutations (UM) were found in NSP3 (UM-18). But no or limited changes were observed in NSP9, NSP11, Envelope protein (E) and accessory factors (NSP7a, ORF 6, ORF7b) suggesting the possible conserved functions of those proteins in SARS-CoV-2 propagation. However, along with D614G mutation, more than 20 different mutations in the Spike protein were detected basically in the S2 domain. Besides, mutations in SR-rich region of N protein and P323L in RDRP were also present. However, the mutation accumulation showed a significant association (p = 0.003) with sex and age of the COVID-19-positive cases. So, identification of these mutational accumulation patterns may greatly facilitate vaccine development deciphering the age and the sex-dependent differential susceptibility to COVID-19.

COVID-19 and Travel: How Our Out-of-home Travel Activity, In-home Activity, and Long-Distance Travel Have Changed.

COVID-19 has made unprecedented impacts on our daily life. This paper investigates individuals' immediate response to COVID-19, exploring out-of-home activities, in-home activities, and long-distance travel. Data for the Kelowna region of Canada comes from a web-based COVID-19 Survey for assessing Travel impact (COST). In addition to analyzing the survey, this research models adjustments in travel decisions by developing ordered logit models for in-home and out-of-home activities, and a binomial logit model for long-distance travel. Data analysis suggests a reduction of about 50% out-of-home activities/day/person during COVID-19 compared to the pre-pandemic period, with the only exception being picking up online orders which significantly increased in frequency. Individuals were engaged in longer duration of in-home activities; the average duration of teleworking, online shopping for groceries and other goods at-home was around 5.5 h/day/person, 32 min/day/person, and 26 min/day/person respectively. The out-of-home activity model results suggest that higher income, younger and middle aged individuals, and full-time workers are more likely to decrease their out-of-home activity; whereas, males, lower income groups, health care professionals, and picking up online orders are more likely to increase. The in-home activity model suggests that older and younger adults, higher and lower income, full-time workers, and highly educated individuals are most likely to increase their in-home activity frequency; in contrast, health care professionals are likely to decrease. Long-distance travel model results reveal that seniors, students, and airline travelers are more likely to reschedule; whereas, trips to visit friends and family are more likely to be cancelled.

A Novel Bayesian Optimization-Based Machine Learning Framework for COVID-19 Detection From Inpatient Facility Data.

The whole world faces a pandemic situation due to the deadly virus, namely COVID-19. It takes considerable time to get the virus well-matured to be traced, and during this time, it may be transmitted among other people. To get rid of this unexpected situation, quick identification of COVID-19 patients is required. We have designed and optimized a machine learning-based framework using inpatient's facility data that will give a user-friendly, cost-effective, and time-efficient solution to this pandemic. The proposed framework uses Bayesian optimization to optimize the hyperparameters of the classifier and ADAptive SYNthetic (ADASYN) algorithm to balance the COVID and non-COVID classes of the dataset. Although the proposed technique has been applied to nine state-of-the-art classifiers to show the efficacy, it can be used to many classifiers and classification problems. It is evident from this study that eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) provides the highest Kappa index of 97.00%. Compared to without ADASYN, our proposed approach yields an improvement in the kappa index of 96.94%. Besides, Bayesian optimization has been compared to grid search, random search to show efficiency. Furthermore, the most dominating features have been identified using SHapely Adaptive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis. A comparison has also been made among other related works. The proposed method is capable enough of tracing COVID patients spending less time than that of the conventional techniques. Finally, two potential applications, namely, clinically operable decision tree and decision support system, have been demonstrated to support clinical staff and build a recommender system.

First detection of SARS-CoV-2 genetic material in the vicinity of COVID-19 isolation Centre in Bangladesh: Variation along the sewer network.

We made the first and successful attempt to detect SARS-CoV-2 genetic material in the vicinity wastewaters of an isolation centre i.e. Shaheed Bhulu Stadium, situated at Noakhali, Southeastern Bangladesh. Owing to the fact that isolation centre, in general, always contained a constant number of 200 COVID-19 patients, the prime objective of the study was to check if several drains carrying RNA of coronavirus are actually getting diluted or accumulated along with the sewage network. Our finding suggested that while the temporal variation of the genetic load decreased in small drains over the span of 50 days, the main sewer exhibited accumulation of SARS-CoV-2 RNA. Other interesting finding displays that probably distance of sampling location in meters is not likely to have a significant impact on the detected gene concentration, although the quantity of the RNA extracted in the downstream of the drain was higher. These findings are of immense value from the perspective of wastewater surveillance of COVID-19, as they largely imply that we do not need to monitor every wastewater system, and probably major drains monitoring may illustrate the city health. Perhaps, we are reporting the accumulation of SARS-CoV-2 genetic material along with the sewer network i.e. from primary to tertiary drains. The study sought further data collection in this line to simulate conditions prevailed in most of the developing countries and to shed further light on decay/accumulation processes of the genetic load of the SARS-COV-2.

Drug Repurposing for Prevention and Treatment of COVID-19: A Clinical Landscape.

SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus strain responsible for the current pandemic of COVID-19, has rendered the entire humanity suffering. Several months have passed since the pandemic has struck. However, the world is still looking for an effective treatment plan to battle the viral infection. The first vaccine just received emergency approval in December 2020 for use in USA and UK. These are excellent news, however, the worldwide distribution of such vaccine, the possibility of virus mutation and the lack of data regarding the long-term effects of such vaccines are a significant concern. In addition, although remdesivir was recently approved by the FDA to be used as a clinical drug against COVID-19, it hasn't stood out yet as a proven form of therapeutics. Such inability to produce a novel therapy has caused enough inconveniences for the affected people worldwide. Repurposing the already available drugs to fight against the virus seems to be a reasonable option amidst such uncertainty. Given the vast collection of potential treatment candidates to be explored against COVID-19, there is a decent chance that a success in this regard will serve the intermediary purpose of clinically treating the infection until a COVID-19 vaccine is widely distributed worldwide and will be able to treat COVID-19 patients that do not adequately respond to vaccines. Such treatments may prove very useful in future coronavirus outbreaks too. Proper research into these repurposing treatments may yield a certain insight into the field of novel treatment production as well. This review study accumulates a relevant set of information about drugs and vaccines against COVID-19, in terms of their repurposing properties and the specific phases of clinical trials they are undergoing across the world.  A potential timeline is also suggested to estimate when an effective result can be expected from the ongoing clinical trials for a better anticipation of the drug landscape. This study will hopefully help accelerate investment of resources into development and discovery of drugs and vaccines against the infection.

Genomic exploration light on multiple origin with potential parsimony-informative sites of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in Bangladesh.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a new strain of beta coronavirus that has spread worldwide within a short period of time and has been responsible for the current COVID-19 pandemic. This novel virus shows high transmission and adaptability frequency into the host with rapid changes in genomic sequences. In this study, we analyzed the complete genome of 41 strains isolated in Bangladesh to understand the evolutionary route and genetic variations of this rapidly evolving virus. The phylogenetics, parsimony informative sites and mutation analyses were performed using MEGA X, Multiple sequence alignment program (MAFFT), and Virus Pathogen Resource. The phylogenetic analysis of the studied genomes along with the reference genome suggested that the viral strains found in Bangladesh might be coming from multiple countries such as France, Germany, India, the USA, and Brazil. After entering into the country, intra-cluster and inter-cluster began to circulate in the 8 individual divisions of Bangladesh. We also identified 26 parsimony-informative sites along with the 9 most important sites for virus evolution. Genome-wide annotations revealed 256 mutations, of which 10 were novel (NSP3, RdRp, Spike) in Bangladeshi strains where I120F(NSP2), P323L(RdRp), D614G (Spike), R203K, G204R(N) are the most prominent. Most importantly, numerous mutations were flourishing in the N protein gene (67) followed by S (45), RdRp (38), NSP2 (34), NSP3 (20), and ORF8 (6) gene. Moreover, nucleotide deletion analysis found nine deletions throughout the genomes including in ORF7a (8), ORF8 (1) with one insertion (G) at 265 positions in only one genome. The underlying mechanism of disease severity, molecular evolution, and epidemiology lie in genomic sequences that are not fully understood yet. Identification of the evolutionary history, parsimony-informative sites and others genetic variations of this deadly virus will facilitate the development of new strategies to control the local transmission and provide deep insight in the identification of potential therapeutic targets for controlling COVID-19.